Opinion | We don’t need to “trade” on everything

Opinion | We don’t need to “trade” on everything Categories: Columns Opinions Opinion | We don’t need to “trade” on everything Prediction market companies such as Polymarket and Kalshi want you to be the grimiest version of yourself. Antonino Pollina, Opinions Columnist • October 14, 2026 Samantha DeFily Photo Illustration. Oh, look! It’s Timothée Chalamet on TV again! He’s in a dentist’s chair trying to say Kalshi, but he can’t! Isn’t that so funny? Gee, Chalamet, what a funny guy. Kalshi must be pretty cool if he’s willing to work with them.  The statement above is, of course, exaggerated; that should go without saying. But prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are “betting” on both the buffoon who would say something like that as well as those who look down on them, to put their money where their mouth is. But why would anyone actually do that? Why are we so keen on squeezing every last bit of money out of the very existence of chance, and letting corporations profit off of it too? What common wisdom—and perhaps logic—would have to say is that participating in prediction markets is a form of gambling. It certainly looks and sounds the part. However, the important legal distinction must be made that it is not technically gambling.  Dr. Thomas Gruca, professor in Marketing and Director of Iowa Electronic Markets at the UI, explained that what happens on prediction markets is closer to contract trading. Users buy futures contracts on a given event, like an election, that either say yes or no for a given outcome.  “Prediction market companies would say, ‘We are not offering betting because betting involves an individual versus the house. But prediction markets allow people to set the price based on how much money they’re willing to spend on a certain contract,’” Gruca said.  It’s fair to assume their “bet” has paid off. According to the Pew Research Center. The global volume of trading on these markets has skyrocketed to around 24 billion dollars this year.  Although prediction market companies have existed since then, the establishment of President Donald Trump’s cabinet in 2024 has played a large part in the flourishing of the business.  What can’t those guys do?  The impetus for said flourishing occurred when the then-fresh Trump administration decided to throw out previous clarifications made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, an agency of the U.S. government that regulates these kinds of markets, because the writers of the clarification were mostly Democrats.  The CFTC had banned “gaming,” which it stated in May 2024 meant a competition in which two parties interact, Gruca explained. Sports, politics, awards shows, and others of that ilk were banned until this was undone.  Companies like Kalshi and Polymarket are in the business of amplifying some of humanity’s worst tendencies: judgment and greed. Only after legislation that previously deemed them unlawful was overturned were they able to rise to unavoidable prominence. Strange. We shouldn’t be rolling over for corporations whose entire profit model is driving a wedge between people who each think they know better than the other. Not to mention the dubiousness of a company raking in cash for the outcome of a presidential election, or the shockwave effects of a bloody international conflict.  The easiest solution here is to simply go outside more. Talk to people with different opinions from you and learn to value them instead of cashing out on them. Because it would be in the companies’ best interest for the wedge to grow. Polymarket would be overjoyed if the corrosive divisiveness of modern life were to be multiplied infinitely.  What a lovely world that would be. Our government would much rather sit on the board of companies that incentivize its citizens to grow apathetic towards anything that doesn’t look like money signs, instead of passing regulations to keep us safe. So simply not using them may be our only option. 0 Like This Story Share on Facebook Share on X Email this Story Print this Story More to Discover More in Columns Opinion | Hotels need to stop taking advantage of parents Opinion | Political ads are burning out voters Opinion | Being under the influence is not an automatic yes More in Opinions Opinion | The loudest cheers I’ve ever heard Opinion | Campus needs to separate free speech areas from student housing Opinion | Allow yourself time to be lazy About the Contributors Antonino Pollina She/her Antonino Pollina is a third-year transfer student studying English and creative writing at the University of Iowa. This is his first year as an opinions columnist for the Daily Iowan and in his free time he enjoys writing poetry, reading, and hanging out with friends. Samantha DeFily, Creative Director (she/her) Samantha DeFily is a third-year student studying Journalism and Sports Media. This is her second year with the DI, previously serving as a visuals editor and photojournalist. She is working towards a career in sports photography.